Forum:2015 Pacific typhoon season
Betting pools for this page January 01W.MEKKHALA Tropical Storm Mekkhala First storm of the WPac season, forecast to head west-northwest and possibly reach the Philippines in 4 days. Ryan1000 04:40, January 15, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Mekkhala (Amang) Now named by PAGASA, and expected to hit just north of where Haiyan hit in a day or two. Hopefully it won't be too strong before landfall, but this storm looks real nice on satellite imagery. Wouldn't surprise me if Mekkhala tries to intensify quickly before landfall. Ryan1000 01:23, January 17, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Mekkhala Almost dead...at least it didn't get too strong. Ryan1000 01:31, January 18, 2015 (UTC) February 02W.HIGOS Typhoon Higos Guess no one's a fan of the off-season for ATL and EPac 'cept for me, this is now a strong 935 mbar 115 mph cat 3 out to sea. Ryan1000 17:07, February 10, 2015 (UTC) March 03W.BAVI Tropical Storm Bavi Well out to sea (well, except for Micronesia), expected to become a cat 1 typhoon at some point in the long run. Ryan1000 20:11, March 11, 2015 (UTC) :Made landfall in Guam, not expected to become a typhoon anymore.--Isaac829 16:20, March 15, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Bavi Going once, going twice...gone. Ryan1000 01:09, March 19, 2015 (UTC) 04W.MAYSAK Tropical Storm Maysak Well, having just returned to Hurricane Wiki, I am quite surprised to see the insane activity 2015 has already produced, namely Eunice, Pam, and Higos. Anyway, the fourth storm of the WPAC is already here before April, and it is poised to become rather strong southwest of Guam. The JMA has named this Maysak (a Cambodian type of tree), and reports winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-min) and a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). Additionally, the agency predicts the system will become an STS by the month's end and a general motion toward the Philippines. Meanwhile, the JTWC notes Maysak's potential - most convection is confined to the northern quadrant with banding wrapping into the northern and eastern quadrants. Also, Dvorak estimates support winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-min) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). Motionwise, the JTWC forecasts Maysak to track westwards because of STR influence for the next 72 hours, before it turns more WNW due to the ridge interacting with a trough. This will bring it into lower shear, excellent outflow, and high SST's, prompting gradual intensification until the storm encounters drier air in the Philippine Sea, slowing down the strengthening. However, 100 knots (115 mph) (1-min) gusting to 125 knots (145 mph) is still good enough to give us our second "major" typhoon of the year - and a faster start than last year. Given this forecast verifies, I wonder what the rest of the year, both in the WPAC and worldwide, will give us. We shall see... AndrewTalk To Me 00:03, March 28, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Maysak Now a category 1 storm, forecast to become a category 4 in 2-3 days while moving through the islands south of Guam. It'll probably weaken and turn north before hitting the Philippines though. Ryan1000 10:30, March 29, 2015 (UTC) : Woah, jumped all the way up to 145 mph. If Maysak becomes a category 5 super typhoon, assuming by tomorrow, it'll be the 3rd earliest category 5 storm ever in the west pacific, after Ophelia of 1958 and Mitag of 2002. Ryan1000 20:10, March 30, 2015 (UTC) ::: And now it's 160 mph, strongest storm of the season and with a pressure of 905 mbars, it's the strongest typhoon ever recorded so early in the year. Micronesia is getting hammered by this thing and it could still be at least a cat 3 when it moves towards Luzon late this week or early next week. Ryan1000 19:13, March 31, 2015 (UTC) :::: Maysak is such a powerful and awesome-looking storm, that it brought me back to the wiki. Let's all hope that some sort of devastating disaster won't happen in Micronesia or the Philippines, although it shouldn't even be close to being Washi or Haiyan-bad. It's just a bit strange that we're seeing such a powerful system so early in the season, I'm guessing this might be a possible sign of an intense season to come (especially with the El Nino I've been hearing that is supposed to be strong this year). --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 22:07, April 1, 2015 (UTC) :::::: The El Nino is a bit...odd. It's expected to come but parts of the world where El Nino is supposed to deliver above-normal rainfall (such as California) haven't been getting it yet, and it's unfortunate. California's state legislature had to pass laws to restrict the amount of water people can use each day because of the shortage in the state. This is also an issue in other parts of the world, such as Brazil and their recent heavy droughts, but that's probably more man-made due to destruction of the amazon rainforest, and less due to climate change. Ryan1000 10:41, April 3, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Maysak (2nd time) Wow, that was simply incredible. Maysak exploded into the strongest March WPAC cyclone on record, and impressed even astronauts. Fortunately, for the Philippines, the typhoon has powered down significantly and sheared apart. Winds are currently at 45 knots (50 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. With landfall forecasted in the next 12 hours, Maysak should fluctuate little before striking Luzon, hopefully causing minor impacts. On the JTWC side, the storm is still a near-typhoon, citing the moderate shear offset by radial outflow, with winds of 60 knots (70 mph) (1-min) gusting to 75 knots (85 mph). As cold air from Taiwan, land interaction, and increasing shear all take over Maysak, it is evident its glory is history. AndrewTalk To Me 19:57, April 4, 2015 (UTC) April 05W.HAISHEN Tropical Depression 05W This storm's going to do so much nothing.--Isaac829 20:40, April 3, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Haishen Well, Isaac, it did get named (if that counts)! Currently about a hundred miles north of Chuuk, Haishen (named for the Chinese god of the sea) has built up convection over the past couple of days. Winds are currently at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-min) with a pressure of 998 mbar (hPa) per the JMA, and 45 knots (50 mph) (1-min) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph) based on JTWC Dvorak estimates. As an equatorial ridge moves Haishen more westwards over the next day or so, it has a slight window to intensify to 50 knots (60 mph) (1- and 10-min) according to both agencies, with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa) and one-minute gusts of 65 knots (75 mph) before increasing shear prompts quick dissipation, perhaps within 72 hours as the JTWC calls. Unfortunately, it looks like the god of the sea will do little more than spin fish in the Pacific and give Chuuk a cloudy day. AndrewTalk To Me 20:07, April 4, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Haishen Died without doing any harm. Ryan1000 15:13, April 7, 2015 (UTC) May 06W.NOUL Tropical Storm Noul New one in the WPac, though it's not strong now, it's forecast to be a cat 4 heading towards Luzon later this week. This one definitely bears watching. Ryan1000 20:20, May 4, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Noul Category 2 storm now, forecast to become a 4 in a few days. It could still hit northern Luzon as a very strong storm, but it could also recurve just before it makes landfall and head out to sea. Let's hope for the second scenario....Ryan1000 03:52, May 7, 2015 (UTC) : Looks like Noul is taking its time to intensify, now it's definitely gonna be hitting Luzon, either as a cat 3 where it is now, or a weak 4. The good news is it's rather small for a typhoon, so damage won't be widespread, on top of the fact that eastern Luzon isn't a really populated place, but it's still a storm to watch out for. Ryan1000 23:18, May 8, 2015 (UTC) :: Cat 4, now. This is not good. leeboy100My Talk! 17:10, May 9, 2015 (UTC) :::Just when you thought Noul couldn't surprise you anymore, it pulled another surprise right in your face. The Philippines may have dodged Maysak, but they're not coming clean this time. The JMA upgraded Noul's winds to 105 knots (120 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 915 mbar (hPa; 27.01 inHg) almost right on top of Luzon about an hour ago. Additionally, the JTWC has noted the 20 nm eye and sharp symmetrical core in the typhoon, upgrading its one-minute winds to 130 knots (150 mph) gusting to 160 knots (185 mph). While neither the JMA nor the JTWC predict actual landfall in the Philippines, the low VWS and SST's exceeding 30C, the latter calls for peak winds of 140 knots (160 mph) (1-min) gusting to 170 knots (195 mph) (would this break the record of the earliest 2nd Category 5 of a WPAC season?), which could be very bad for some parts of Luzon. Fortunately, the weakening of the STR over the next couple of days will turn Noul more northeast, bringing it into higher shear and increasing SST's, and eventually prompting extratropical transition in another two or three days. Both of the aforementioned agencies do bring the typhoon close to Japan as well, although I'm not sure if this will cause any problems for them. Truly amazing to see such a strong power in the WPAC so early. AndrewTalk To Me 02:04, May 10, 2015 (UTC) :::::Now that it's a cat 5, there's once again a possibility Noul might narrowly miss Luzon to the east and recurve out to sea (or hit Japan as a tropical storm in the long run, not like that'd be severe or anything). It looks like the Philippines are gonna get off easy again for this one. Ryan1000 03:45, May 10, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Noul After hitting the northeastern tip of Luzon, Noul has now turned northeast and become an extratropical cyclone. It'll be moving over Tokyo later today. Ryan1000 12:07, May 12, 2015 (UTC) 07W.DOLPHIN Tropical Depression 07W This one is much farther out to sea than Noul, and it's forecast to eventually become a typhoon heading towards Guam. This would be Dolphin if it's named. Ryan1000 03:52, May 7, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dolphin It may have been a small jump, but already, seven named storms have formed in the WPAC! When's the last time that's happened? Anywho, Dolphin, named after a Hong Kong mascot, has attained winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-min) per the JMA, with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). As spiral banding continues to wrap into Dolphin's core, the JTWC has upgraded its one-minute winds to 40 knots (45 mph), gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). Despite moderate VWS of 20 to 25 knots, a whopping 29C SST's should continue to fuel the storm's intensification. Although the JMA only foresees Dolphin reaching weak STS intensity, the JTWC predicts the storm will reach winds of 95 knots (110 mph) (1-min) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph) within the next five days. However, given the latter's weak intensity bias, I won't be surprised if the fourth major typhoon of the year arrives before May 15. Guam may have to watch out; the JTWC notes the STR could steer Dolphin close to the island within the next few days. Man, what a start to this season! AndrewTalk To Me 01:51, May 10, 2015 (UTC) Typhoon Dolphin Now it's a typhoon, and Dolphin could be a very strong one, possibly a cat 4, when it heads towards Guam by Friday. It's not every day you see a significant typhoon head towards Guam at this time of year, in fact the only other time a cat 4 hit Guam during the month of May was Pamela in 1976, and the last cat 4 to hit the island period was Pongsona in December 2002. The southwestern part of the circulation appears to have been eroded by some dry air recently, but it's not expected to last, and if the current forecast turns out to be correct, this storm could get really ugly for Guam in the next two days. Fortunately, Dolphin is expected to move along rather quickly, so it won't last very long and flooding won't be a serious issue, but it definitely bears watching nonetheless. Ryan1000 19:49, May 13, 2015 (UTC) : It appears Dolphin didn't intensify into a cat 4 like it was earlier forecast, and due to some dry air and moderate shear, it only passed between Guam and Rota as a 110 mph cat 2 typhoon. This could've been a lot worse for Guam had it strengthened, but it didn't. Dolphin will probably head out to sea from here, though it could still bring some rough surf to southern Japan or hit Iwo Jima. Ryan1000 19:39, May 15, 2015 (UTC) Hello, everyone, I am back a day earlier than I expected, and I come back to a typhoon in the pacific it is currently at 125 MPH and actually has a chance of being a cat 4, and according to wunderground, could be a CAT 5 in the next few days, although it probably won't affect land, this could be one to watch leeboy100My Talk! 00:16, May 16, 2015 (UTC) : Now a Cat 4 super typhoon... 155mph 1-min winds. Hope that this won't get any worse. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:57, May 16, 2015 (UTC) : Where is everybody!?! Dolphin is now a super typhoon thats at 155 MPH , two miles per hour away from being a CAT 5!!!! leeboy100My Talk! 20:04, May 16, 2015 (UTC) Gotta say, I'm impressed Dolphin pulled this off, it's now a 160 mph category 5 super typhoon (115 mph cat 3 by JMA's 10-min wind standard), and its pressure is now at 925 mbars. Although it's a powerful typhoon, the good news is it's long past Guam and probably won't be affecting land from here, other than maybe Iwo Jima as it eventually recurves out to sea. For some historical reference, because of its intensity, Dolphin has now set the record for being the earliest 3rd category 5 storm in WPac history, eclipsing the previous record set by Super Typhoon Winnie back on July 15, 1958. 1997, the most active Pacific typhoon season in history (in terms of ACE and number of cat 5's) didn't get its 3rd category 5 Super Typhoon (Rosie) until July 22. Ryan1000 20:37, May 16, 2015 (UTC) I can't believe this,' ''three 'cat 5's already! Also, this could be one of those storms that is strong, but affects very little, or no land. Those are my favorite type of typhoons. This could be a very active season though. That could be bad. leeboy100My Talk! 21:39, May 16, 2015 (UTC) That record cat 5 didn't last long, as it's back down to a 4 now, with winds of 130 mph, it shouldn't affect any land. It will just continue to be one with the dolphins :P leeboy100My Talk! 21:16, May 17, 2015 (UTC) Three Cat. 5's already?! Geez, this WPac season is shaping up to be very active! :O Although, I don't really track the WPac anymore, nowadays, I only track the EPac and Atlantic mostly. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 21:53, May 17, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolphin Looks like it's been harpooned by wind shear and died... 'Ryan1000' 20:08, May 20, 2015 (UTC) June 08W.KUJIRA JMA Tropical Depression While everyone concentrates his or her attention on Bill, a new TD has sprung to life here in the WPAC. The JTWC notes increasing convection in Invest ''90W's western and southern quadrants, with some divergence of the surronding shear. Although they have issued a TCFA regarding the invest, the models are not as excited, and develop 90W because of the impact of a storm surge in the South China Sea. Moreover, the JTWC has a really interesting wind estimate for the invest - 18 to 23 knots (21 to 26 mph) (1-min), which I have never seen before. On the JMA side, winds are currently at 30 knots (35 mph) (10-min) with a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). They forecast brief intensification into a TS with winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-min) and a pressure of 998 mbar (hPa). For me, I'm not expecting anything significant from this TD. AndrewTalk To Me 13:31, June 20, 2015 (UTC) :I've been waiting months! Hopefully we can see another Category 5 typhoon! 3 C5s in a row, how cool would that be? --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 18:46, June 20, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression 08W Puffle, it's going to be a miracle if this system becomes a Category 5; it's basically about to hit China. Nevertheless, the JTWC have upgraded 90W to a tropical depression with winds of 25 knots (30 mph) (1-min) gusting to 35 knots (40 mph). While an STR extension is steering 08W westward for now, the depression should turn more northward as its influence lessens. Also, despite being in moderate shear at the moment, a marginal environment is prompting the JTWC to forecast a peak of 40 knots (45 mph) (1-min) with 50 knot (60 mph) gusts before land interaction with Hainan and Mainland China takes its toll. No new updates from the JMA side; they are still predicting a weak TS as well. And judging by this, even though 08W will likely be nothing more than a weak tropical storm, the widespread impact potential seems high. AndrewTalk To Me 21:06, June 20, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kujira named by the JMA. JTWC keeping it as a TD. will become an TS in aprox. 6 hours. totally destructive|get hyper! 18:26, June 21, 2015 (UTC) 09W.CHAN-HOM 95W.INVEST twin system of 90P. GFS says it will track north. then straight into the Phillipines and crosses into the NIO, where it possibly regenerates. totally destructive|get hyper! 16:05, July 2, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Chan-Hom This one is well out to sea, forecast to become a typhoon when it nears the Mariana Islands in 4-5 days. Ryan1000 14:20, June 30, 2015 (UTC) w00t! If this is a Category 5, we can see a third-in-a-row! (not counting storms that didn't make it to STS status or higher) --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 16:26, June 30, 2015 (UTC) chanhom going to absorb 94W. totally destructive|get hyper! 15:41, July 1, 2015 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Chan-hom if you think that Chan-hom is a ball of convection. think again... [http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015070206/gfs_pres_wind_09W_29.png GFS deepens it up to 880mb] on the 06z run. totally destructive|get hyper! 16:03, July 2, 2015 (UTC) spoke too early. now a C1. but what happens if it does EI or RI? totally destructive|get hyper! 01:06, July 3, 2015 (UTC) : Almost a typhoon now, and the forecast peak is raised to cat 4, Chan-Hom could even be yet another cat 5 if it intensifies fast enough. Ryan1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC) 10W.LINFA as everyone is focused on chan-hom. another invest pops up. (like gremlins, you pour water on them and they duplicate) totally destructive|get hyper! 15:18, June 30, 2015 (UTC) T.C.F.A. issued. TD by JMA and named Egay by PAGASA. totally destructive|get hyper! 22:20, July 1, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Linfa who knew? totally destructive|get hyper! 15:29, July 2, 2015 (UTC) : Wha...well, I didn't expect this one to jump up so fast. Expected to become a typhoon as it passes northern, or just north of, Luzon in a few days. Won't be as strong as Chan-Hom though. Ryan1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC) JMA Tropical Depression JMA Tropical Depression Another one out there, this one is somewhat near to Chan-Hom. Ryan1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Normally I'm one of the first to complain about starting this section so early in the season; however, we've already had five storms, at least one of which has a decent chance of retirement. So, without further ado... ;JMA *Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at, but enough for retirement? Nah. *Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, but a fish is a fish is a fish. *Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing. *'Maysak:' 65% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5. *Haishen: Wait, what? ;PAGASA *All names: 0% - So far, no storm has caused either 1 billion PHP in damage, or 300 fatalities. As much as I disagree with PAGASA's arbitrary retirement standards (Amang was a respectable storm for them, and even a minor storm like Betty deserves a bit better than 0%), there's nothing I can do to change them. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:53, April 21, 2015 (UTC) Eh...I'm bored. Been a while since I've been on, but until EPac and ATL start up in two weeks and a month, respectively, might as well post my calls thus far: JMA names: *Mekkhala - 5% - Damage and deaths were very minimal, even by their standards. *Higos - 0% - Strongest February typhoon in 45 years, but it was still well away from land. *Bavi - 1% - Was just an afternoon rainshower for parts of micronesia; damage, if any, was less than minimal. *Maysak - 70% - It fortunately wasn't as bad as it could've been for the Philippines, but parts of Micronesia were slammed by this typhoon, and it was regarded as the worst ever in some areas. It has a pretty good shot of retirement based on what happened there alone. On top of all this, Maysak was also the strongest storm to exist in the West Pacific before April, and the 3rd earliest WPac category 5, after Ophelia in January 1958 and Mitang in March 2002. *Haishenot put this one on here (end pun). *Noul - 5% - Preliminary estimate, but overall damage seems to have been minor in the islands, just like Maysak. *Dolphin - 10% - Damage on Guam was much less than I initially feared it would be, so it'll probably be coming back again in ~6 years. PAGASA names: *Nothing meets their retirement criteria (1 billion PHP damage/300 deaths) thus far. There you go. Ryan1000 20:44, May 4, 2015 (UTC) For the first time since I joined this wiki I will post retirement predictions for the WPAC Here we go! JMA *Mekkhala: 10%- 3 deaths and $7 million, but that won't warrant retirement *Higos: 0%- it was a strong storm, but didn't affect land *Bavi: 1%- didn't do much *''Maysak: 60%-''While the Phillipines avoided the worst of this unusually early cat 5 super typhoon, Micronesia was hit extremely hard. As Dylan said, This was a stronger Sudal (which was retired), except Sudal caused no deaths. 5 people were killed in this typhoon, so it has a good shot at retirement *Haishen: 0%- moving on to the next storm! *Noul: 10% The Phillipines avoided major devestation here! It was a cat 5 as it passed by the islands. Miraculously, damage has been minor so far! It did cause 2 deaths though :( *Dolphin: currently active ' PAGASA' Nothing devestating enough to be retired so far. '' leeboy100My Talk! 21:38, May 17, 2015 (UTC) '' JMA *Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at. *Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, buuuuut, no landfall. *Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing.. *Maysak: 45% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5. *Haishen: Wait, what? *Noul: 86% - Yeah...Sure the Philippines didn't get a direct hit, but with Category 5 landfall, It should have taken full notice. DIS STORM AIN'T BEEN NUTTIN BUT BAAAD. *Dolphin: 30.5% - Strong typhoon, along with minor flooding in Guam, but it did pretty much nuttin. *Kujira: 0% - wtf, a fish = a fish. End of the line. But it did make landfall. YES BUT IT WAS ONLY LIKE A TORENTAL DOWNPOUR. OK? SHADDUP. *Chan-hom: currently active --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 17:56, July 1, 2015 (UTC) :Any particular reason why you copied my rationales up to Haishen? :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:19, July 1, 2015 (UTC) ::I was very lazy, that is all. :P --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 21:04, July 2, 2015 (UTC) here are mine. will update with new storms. ※ 5% Mekkhala: even Mekkhala was weak. it caused some flooding. ※ 0% Higos: meh... ※ -1% Bavi: wait what? ※ 75% Maysak: Micronesia got hit reaallly badly. Sudal part 2 ※ -100% Haishen: no comment. (end water puns) ※ 50% Noul: Noul literally evaporated as it missed the phillipines as a C5. ※ 15% Dolphin: altough was a record early storm. some minor flooding in Guam ※ 25% Kujira: some flooding ※ ???% Chan-hom: active ※ 45% Linfa: active. but caused the ferry MV Nirvana to capsize. totally destructive|get hyper! 04:09, June 25, 2015 (UTC)